Pre-Season Predictions

Traditionally I am a very slow starter in FPL – I don’t do my homework, I make wild predictions about the season to come and I let my heart rule my head.  But not this year, no no, I will be better maybe.

Before the start of each season, a group of friends and I make a few predictions about what is going to happen.  These predictions remain secret until the end of the season when we have a big old laugh at Greg and his trust in Saido Berahino and for not realising Josh King is Norwegian.

While revealing my predictions here and now will ruin the post-season joy of revealing what our past selves thought would happen, I’m going to do it anyway…

The final May 2020 Premier League table, as predicted by me on 15th August 2019:

1 Manchester City 2 Liverpool 3 Tottenham Hotspur Manchester United 4 5 Arsenal 6 Chelsea 7 Everton 8 Leicester City 9 Wolves 10 Crystal Palace 11 West Ham United 12 Burnley 13 Aston Villa 14 Watford 15 AFC Bournemouth 16 Newcastle United 17 Brighton & Hove Albion 18 Southampton 19 Norwich City 20 Sheffield United
Not-radamus

I was wrong about Liverpool, and I was wrong about Leicester. We can be pretty sure of that at this stage.  And, I think it is fair to say I underestimated Sheffield United.  I think Norwich will get relegated but I dare say that might be the only one of my relegation picks I end up getting right. All the rest is in the balance. At this stage I’ll take a new punt on Bournemouth and Villa being the other two.

Manage rswho will leave before the end ofthe season 1 Ralf Hasenhuttl 2 Manuel Pellegrini 3 Chris Wilder
maybe, yep, nope

Pellegrini is gone, Hasenhuttl has somehow managed to survive and steady the ship (Danny Ings, well done mate).  Wilder is taking Sheff Utd to Europe but it doesn’t state why the managers will leave, so maybe he’ll get poached and I will be correct by default, which is one of the most satisfying ways to be correct.

layers from newly promoted sides Norwich Teemu Pukki Sheff utd Oliver Norwood Aston Villa Tom Heaton
yes, maybe, no

All in the balance – Pukki looking good for that one but Todd C having a go as well.  Norwood finally scored (more on him later) and its hard to say who their best player has been this season, they’re a solid team.  Heaton is class but Grealish is probably going to get the nod on that one.

ings (anydub) 1 Nicolas Pepe 2 Rodri(go) 3 Tom Heaton

Pepe – Nope. Got that one wrong. Rodri – started well, faded a little bit since. Heaton – class, I’ll make a case at the end of the season depending where Villa finish.

Worstnews ign I ngs 1 Josip Drmic 2 Joelinton 3 Che Adams

Drmic – 115 mins played, back sometime in January to make a few more appearances from the bench. Certainly hasn’t set the world alight but he was free I suppose.

Joelinton – don’t know if he just needs a goal to get his confidence up or if he’s just terrible. Either way, I predicted he’d flop and he has so far. I feel sorry for him, a little bit. Fun fact: a Newcastle fan I know thought they had signed Joe Linton, who really does sound like he should play for Ipswich.

Adams – barely plays, hasn’t been very good, tipped to leave in January and go back to the Championship

players 1 Christian Benteke 2 Andy Carroll 3 Riyad Mahrez

Benteke – hahahahaha
Carroll – technically an improvement because he has already played more than last season and has 3 assists vs 0 last year.
Mahrez – already scored and assisted more than last season. I’m going to allow myself that one

Qualitative claims about the season to come – freeform statements I made about what would happen this season:

  1. This will be Phil Foden‘s year.  He will break into the City team, score 5-10 goals and make an England squad.
    He HAS played more, he made his first start and is scoring goals in other competitions, but it hasn’t quite been the explosion I expected.
  2. Oliver Norwood will be the undervalued FPL asset who will score 5-10 goals and get loads of assists because he takes penalties, corners and freekicks.
    Finally over Christmas he scored a penalty. Just 4-9 goals to go.
  3. Joelinton will be a massive waste of money and Newcastle could have just signed Salomon Rondon permanently and spent the rest of the £40m on another striker and a decent midfielder.
Dave, how do you feel about NIJFC going down the route again of buying the expensive unproven Bundesliga version of a player you basically already had? Joelinton = Rondon Muto = Perez
I’m such a cow

I confidently predict that the rest of the season will not change my opinion.

Introduction

1st January 2020, approximately 5 months after I considered starting a Fantasy Premier League blog.  I like writing but have struggled for a topic that would a) be interesting, b) have potential for humour and c) provide some level of routine or regularity to mean I could gather enough momentum to keep going once I couldn’t really be bothered anymore.  FPL provides all of those things.

Traditionally, I am committed to, but ultimately fairly mediocre at FPL. I win a few of my leagues among friends each year purely because I am the only one who looks at his team each week. I am by default above average, because the average player doesn’t pay attention, picks their team at the start of the season and then forgets about it.  Among people who have fpl as a relatively important part of their life, I am distinctly second-rate.  I rarely threaten the top 250k and there are generally a few humorous moments throughout the season where my transfers have huge net point deficits and I confidently predict “the next big thing” only to watch them do absolutely nothing week-in-week-out. (This year’s misprediction: this will be Phil Foden’s breakthrough season. Last year’s: Wilfried Zaha will be the PFA Player of the Year)

To back up my claim of commitment in the face of mediocrity, here are my results for the last 13 years:

Previous Seasons 2007/08 2C•0E/00 2009/10 2010/11 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 201S/16 2016/17 2017/18 298761 17519 717249 2191
2009/10 though, right?
Historical Performance - Points and Percentile 2006/07 2007/08 zoos/æ 2009/10 2010/11 2014/12 2014/13 2013/14 2014/15 201S/1E 201E/17 2017/18 2018/19 poi n ts Pe n tile
Above average, but nothing more.

I often tell people about the famous 2009/10 season where everything clicked and I finished 17,519th out of approx 2.8 million players, but since then I have become AFC Bournemouth – not rubbish, occasional high GW points and not to be written off completely, but ultimately not worrying anyone who’s done their homework.  There was also the year I got through about 9 rounds of the cup and started dreaming of the Premier League water bottle or whatever the prize is, but alas I lost due to my opponent receiving a few, what my friends and I call, Jammy B’stard Bench Points (JBBPs).

So, I thought a blog might be quite interesting, funny and most importantly give me something to focus my writing efforts into.  Didn’t happen in the end did it, because I forgot and also couldn’t really be bothered. 

But wait a minute, this year I am actually doing quite well.  As I write this, just before the start of GW21, I am 2,363rd out of 7,282,544 players.  By my calculations that puts me in the top 0.03% overall.  Fans of percentiles will be able to convert that to the 99.97th percentile.  If FPL was a country, its population would make it 104th biggest in the world, ever so slightly ahead of Laos.  Imagine being the 2,363rd best person in Laos? Pretty awesome isn’t it?  I bet you would read that person’s blog wouldn’t you?

Anyway, a combination of a New Year’s Resolution and wanting to document the 2nd half of the season means I am starting the blog 21 weeks later than I should have done.  Better Late Than Never might not apply when bringing Danny Ings into your team, but I think it does apply with other things in life.

I’ll follow up this introduction with a brief recap of the season so far and let’s see what happens.  Maybe I’ll end up as President of Laos.

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